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28 May 2009 Update

The latest GFS model run (18z, 27 May 2009) is showing slightly less rainfall than previous runs for the Western Cape, though larger amounts for the southern coastal areas of the Eastern Cape. The main aspects continue to be that of the extremely cold temperatures likely to be felt over the weekend. Temperatures through out the Western Cape are to remain below 15 degrees on Friday with snowfalls likely over the higher mountain ranges through Friday and early on Saturday.

Strong winds of up to 65km/h are still forecast to occur in places between Cape Agulhas to Plettenberg Bay. Though winds are likely to remain around 40-50km/h around the Mother City. Rainfall totals near the mountains could exceed 50mm in a period of 24 hours with likely heavier falls on the higher mountain regions of the Western Cape. Rough seas with swells in excess of 5 meters  along the Cape coast as well as very strong winds and rough seas off shore as the low pressure intensifies to the south of the country.

For more updated information on this weather system be sure to pay the forums a visit.



Recent model guidence has been indicating another possible stormy weekend ahead for the Western Cape and Eastern Cape with temperatures remaining below 10`C for some areas of the Eastern Cape on Sunday. It appears that while the Eastern Cape may feel the brunt of the cold the most, the Western Cape will be in for heavier rainfalls with the South African Weather Service forecasting over 100mm of rain in a four day period from Thursday to Sunday. While the models are still a bit back and fourth on this storm it definitely bears watching. Especially for those in parts of the Western, Northern and Eastern Cape.

gfs model run 29 may 2009

The South African Weather Service has issued the following warnings

Very cold, wet and windy conditions are expected to set in over the high ground of the Western and Northern Cape Provinces on Friday, persisting through Saturday. Snowfalls are expected on the western high ground of the Western and Northern Cape Provinces on Friday, spreading to the eastern high ground of the Western Cape on Saturday. Gale force north-westerly to westerly winds are expected in places between Table Bay and Plettenberg Bay on Friday and Saturday.



Gordon Richardson made the following post regarding this storm system in the forums area.


“The synoptic chart at 00Z this morning (Tue 26th) shows a large frontal system approaching the Western Cape: The initial low is fairly weak (central pressure 1002hPa), though this may intensify slightly.

High cloud associated with a weak upper trough is forecast to arrive from the subtropics early on Wed 27th, though this is not related to the main frontal system.

Landfall is expected late on Wed 27th, with a sharp drop in the relatively mild daytime temperature. SAWS Aerosport spot graph for 34S 19E (near Franschoek)…ODELD2.jsp?img=-3419 (next day).

The EUMETSAT airmass shows a large, but not very intense system:

The EUMETSAT Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate shows many areas of scattered showers behind the main front:

The deep low behind the first front looks set to pass far to the south of Cape Town. Further fronts may develop in this system during the weekend.”



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