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Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely Within 24 Hours
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Tropical Cyclone Formation Likely Within 24 Hours

Yesterday we spoke about the potential for a tropical cyclone

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Tropical Cyclone Effects Possible for South Africa
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Tropical Cyclone Effects Possible for South Africa

Mainstream media has already picked up on a tropical formation

Trough Development – Northern and Western Cape

It’s been a quiet summer as far as trough activity for the western parts of South Africa is conerned, however it seems that we have the potential for thunderstorm activity developing today April 9th, through to April 11th. The trough in question already exists over Namibia, but will further intensity and dig south over the next 48 hours.

cape town altocumulus webcam

Altocumulus visible at 9:00 in Cape Town – Image courtesy of Capetown-webcam.com

thunderstorm forecast cape town

Image courtesy of South African Weather Service

24-hour-rainfall

5mm Rainfall probability

The associated showers and thundershowers are likely to impact majority of the Northern and Western Cape. The exact timing of the trough is difficult to forecast, but for Cape Town it appears as though the peak of the thunderstorm potential will exist overnight tonight into the morning hours of April 10th. After that the trough and associated instability will move east. Residents of the Northern Cape are likely to be experiencing thunderstorms within the next 8 hours as the trough continued to develop.

cape and precip

Forecast for CAPE and Precip

Surface temperatures today in the Cape are in the low 30s for the most part, and with some altocumulus already visible, shows that there is moisture and instability present. As of 09:00 April 9th, it’s certainly looking like one of the more promising thunderstorm potentials for the Cape in a while now. Rainfall figures for the 10th of April look minimal for Cape Town itself, with less than 20% chance for rain of 5mm, while the probability is higher along the West Coast.

The TAF from the SAWS looks quite promising too for Cape Town:

TAF FACT 090400Z 0906/1012 20005KT CAVOK BECMG 0922/0924 34010KT
FM100000 34010KT 9999 SCT050 PROB30 TEMPO 1000/1006 TS FEW050CB
TX33/0912ZTN15/1006Z=

If you’re a storm enthusiast in the Cape, it may be worth charging those camera batteries, tonight may be one of those rare shows for the area. Though as many of us know, these systems can be unpredictable at times and end up being void of lightning or otherwise just not strengthen to the degree that the models predict – however it’s our best chance in a while!

You can follow this developing event on the forums: West Coast Trough (April 9 – 10)

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