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A Dry April For The Cape

April has been notably dry for what is often considered

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South African Weather Service Install Doppler

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Severe Weather Begins – 23 June 2009

As forecast by the South African Weather Service and as

Tropical Storm Danny Forms

Tropical Storm Danny has formed in the Atlantic after a persistent area of convection associated with a tropical wave finally developed a low level circulation. HurricaneHunter aircrafts performed an investigation on the system yesterday but there was not enough indication of westward winds to declare it a tropical storm. What they did find though were peak surface winds in excess of 50 knots associated with the open wave.

Today the NHC has labled it as a 40kt tropical storm which is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple days. The system itself is currently being sheared by an upper level low so the initial process of strengthening may hold off for a little while.

Models are spread on the direction the storm will head over the next few days with the NHC favouring the left bias models and having a possible north east coast landfall for the system which may be a hurricane at that time. The NHC has forecasted the system to peak at 65kt’s which is the hurricane threshold.

Keep an eye on this system as it develops over the next few days, it may hold some surprises as tropical developments never seem to end up the way we originally think.

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