I received an email from William Vermaak in Centurion, Pretoria
The first named storm of the Atlantic 2010 season has formed. The system, previously allocated as Invest 93L has spent quite some time lingering around the Caribbean not really doing much at all, causing some frustration to those hurricane tracking weather enthusiasts. Though on Saturday 26 June the system was finally named after Recon went in and found tropical storm force winds associated with it. It was only just declared a tropical depression on Friday and only spent a few hours as one before being upgraded.
The track of tropical storm Alex has trended further west with almost each model run over the past few days, originally with the EURO model forecasting a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall near the Florida panhandle. Though now the system is forecast to first make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, before reaching the gulf as a weakened tropical depression, and then regaining tropical storm and even category 1 hurricane status just before making landfall in Mexico. Though Texas should still keep an eye on this system as guidence is often changed as upper steering currents are quite unpredictable, as is all weather.
This will mark the beginning of what could potentially be a very active hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures have been extremely high throughout spring and continue to be far above normal so far this summer too. Shear is somewhat relaxed, though still occasionally present thanks to a few troughs. The next area of interest is the area marked 94L which has some potential for development, though a ‘fish’ storm would be most likely.