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Image by Sat24 As we mentioned in our previous post,

Tropical Cyclone Funso

Tropical Storm FunsoI have decided to continue the postings of Funso in a separate thread, namely this one. Previously I was discussing both Ethel and Funso together but since now Moderate Tropical Storm Funso is the storm which holds the greatest interest to those in Southern Africa, I figured I will focus solely on Funso for the time being, to discuss Ethel, feel free to head to the forums where we have a general thread topic on both of these systems.

As of 7pm on January 19th, Funso is a moderate tropical storm located in the Mozambique Channel and is forecast to intensify over the upcoming days as it drifts around the channel, moving towards the Mozambique coast where it is then forecast to move away for a while, then move further south and then head towards the west again with potential landfall looking like the Mozambique coast in about 5 or 6 days.

Tropical Storm Funso has been increasing in satellite presentation today and continues to look as though steady intensification is likely over the coming days. The 120 hour forecast is now calling for a 100kt Intense Tropical Cyclone. I advise interests along the Mozambique coast to keep a very close eye on this storm and we should know in a couple days how much attention needs to be paid by those in Northern South Africa, with some of the weather models suggesting that the storm may bring further soaking to the Limpopo province. These model forecast are quite far out though so no one should be panicking or taking the model output as fact, just monitor the system and you will be well informed as the time approaches as to it’s likely effects on weather in South Africa.

The latest official forecast information is as follows:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)


0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:


12H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:


CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED LAONG THE DAY WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION FLARRING AND WRAPP
ING AROUND THE CENTER. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY DEPICT AN HINT OF A WARM SPOT IN THE CDO. CO
NSEQUENTLY, INTENSIFICATION COULD BE STRONGER THAN SAID IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR
ECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 36 TO 48 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN A EASTWA
RDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE A NEW WESTWARDS TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER TH E STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STR THAT SHOULD BUILD SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL .


OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCE
SS IS HELD OFF BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE LITTLE NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. TH
IS SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTORS.


WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR THE QUELIMANE
REGION … WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME …INHABITANTS
OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
NNNN

Stay tuned to this article for further updates over the coming days!!

 

Funso-Satellite

Edit #1 (January 20th 2012  08:00) – Overnight Tropical Storm Funso has undergone rapid intensification and is no longer a 40kt tropical storm but rather a 70kt Tropical Cyclone. An eye was visible on satellite imagery earlier and Tropical Cyclone Funso is now expected to become a 110kt intense cyclone in 120 hours. The appearance on satellite is good, it can’t be compared to the symmetry often seen in Atlantic hurricanes, but it’s looking quite powerful already and is forecast to continue strengthening. Majority of the convection lies to the direct west of the CDO and then also a large area of deep convection in the northern bands, these are the areas likely to be experiencing the heaviest rain from Funso, no doubt that flooding will get underway today in parts of both Mozambique and Madagascar as the northern band of convection is likely to wrap around the east side of the storm. As usual there is some variation between forecasts from La Reunion and the JTWC, the JTWC thinks that Funso will peak in 36 hours as a 115kt storm and then weaken slightly to 105kt as it heads south down the channel. This is already a dangerous cyclone and warrants attention!

The latest forecast from La Reunion:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5+
FUNSO INTENSIFIES NOW RAPIDLY AND SHOWS A SMALL EYE ON INFRA-RED IMAGERY.
LAST 3 AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS HIGHER (NEAR 5.5-) BUT MENTIONED FT IS LIMITED BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS AND AGREES WITH AN AVERAGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

NWP MODELS DIVERGE THEN STRONGLY.
TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGE (CF Z500) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM.
THE NORTHERN NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD STEERS THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERS IT WESTWARDS.

CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.
FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO, FUNSO SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY FROM SATURDAY 21/1200Z TO SUNDAY 22/1200Z. DURING THIS SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.
ON AND AFTER SUNDAY 22/1200Z, SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, IT IS EXPECTED TO ADOPT A NEW TRACK EASTWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS.
BEING BACK OVER HIGH HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY 23/1200Z, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSITING SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.
FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THIS TRACK ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER REGULAR INTENSIFICATION.

EVEN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED BY RSMC LA REUNION AS THE MOST LIKELY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WITHIN SATURDAY 21 AND SUNDAY 22 GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
NEAR QUELIMANE OR BEIRA REGIONS .. WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME …INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

Funso-Forecast

Edit #2 (January 20th 2012  18:00) Tropical Cyclone Funso has continued to look good today, currently on satellite one is able to see that the CDO is located just off the Mozambique coast and convection wrapping around Funso, primarily on the south west quadrant. Some deep convection can also be seen on the far north east bands. Parts of Mozambique are already experiencing heavy rainfall. Satellite imagery suggests that there is some stable air on the east side of the storm which is inhibiting the symmetry a bit but convection is more consolidated than it was this morning.

The big news is that La Reunion has now forecasted a rare ‘Very Intense Tropical Cyclone’ to occur. Funso is now forecast to become a 120kt tropical cyclone in 120 hours, that is if you believe La Reunion, JTWC on the other hand has it on a far more conservative side at the same time period. Also of interest was the 00z GFS model run which showed the cyclone getting quite close to the far NE coast of South Africa, but it must be noted that it is too far out to say what impact this storm will have on South African weather, it still looks as though it’s going to warrant watching from residents and especially maritime personal in the area. Very rough seas and storm surge are usually associated with coastal areas within proximity to such a strong cyclone. I will continue to bring updates over the coming few days as I watch this amazing form of nature progress.

Here is the latest from La Reunion:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 38.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5


LAST VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A WARM POINT AND MICRO WAVES CONFIRM THEVERY SMALL SIZE BANDING EYE STRUCTRE OF THE SYSTEM.


AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AT FIRST WEST TO SOUTH-WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AND AFTER EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MIDTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48TAU, NWP MODELS ARE MORE DISPERSED. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBAL RECURVEMENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGEST A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.


FOR THE NETX 24 HOURS, PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND
WEAKENING OF THE OCEANIC ENERGETIC POTENTIAL (SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM) ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT FACTORS FOR DEEPENING.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD RECOVER BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN REGULARLY.

MOST OF THE NWP MODELS EXCLUDE THE LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST BUT THE REGIONS OF QUELIMANE AND BEIRA SHOULD UNDERGO HEAVY
RAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Funso Track

Edit #3 (January 22nd 2012  00:15): Tropical Cyclone Funso appears to have taken a bit of a beating today as satellite appearances showed what looks to be obvious weakening, what from appearance looks to be caused by dry air on the eastern quadrant, something I referenced in my previous updates. This is very possibly caused by drier air over Madagascar being pulled into the cyclones circulation as well as what appears to be land interaction with the CDO of the cyclone, I would assume drier air in Mozambique has also aided to the decay in satellite appearance. I currently have limited access to internet and as such these assumptions are based solely on satellite appearance and I may be wrong. What it does look like though, is that some of the models have trended to more of an easterly track post-72 hours, slipping down the Mozambique Channel and out to sea instead of making a direct landfall and heading into Mozambique, though the models are still split on which scenario will occur and as such not much weight can be put on the track guidance at this stage. As for intensity, currently I am left wondering and should know more tomorrow morning, but while heavy rain is a given to Mozambique through the next few days, it does look as though the situation is better than it could have been and Funso does appear to be weaker than I and the agencies thought it may be at this stage. It still warrants keeping an eye on though and when I have internet connectivity I will be providing updates, my regular connection will resume tomorrow afternoon. If anything dramatic changes over the next hours though I will make sure I can provide an up to date forecast, though in the meanwhile I suggest that everyone pay close attention to the JTWC or La Reunion warnings that they are issuing for Funso.

Edit #4 (January 22nd 2012  10:15): After looking dismal on satellite appearance last night with a large void of convection on the east quadrant and a disrupted CDO, Funso is looking much better. Convection has increased, particularly in that eastern quadrant with better banding seen in all quadrants. It looks as though tropical cyclone Funso will begin intensifying today as it begins to move away from the coast and then in the next couple days more more SSE. The last JTWC forecast advisory issued on Funso was over 12 hours ago, so I am a bit weary of posting that information now and will wait until their next update. Having a look at the GFS model, the GFS is now more consistent with the idea that tropical cyclone Funso will track SSE off the coast of Mozambique and then head out the channel, passing close to Madagascar. Regardless of landfall heavy rains are to be expected across the coastal parts of Mozambique, the good news is that the latest model guidance is suggest less of a chance of Limpopo receiving more flooding. I will not issue my own track but rather rely on La Reunion and JTWC advisories as these are the most trustworthy sources for cyclone information. I do expect that in 24 hours we may well have a very good looking cyclone in the channel though.

Edit #5 (January 22nd 2012  15:15): New official forecast information

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 38.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 AND CI=5.0- FUNSO IS BEGINING TO GO SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST EASTWARD AND THEN
INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE LAND IS LESSENING. CONVECTION IS
RESTRUCTURING ABOVE THE CENTRE WITH A BANDING EYE ON SATELITE
IMAGERY.
AT 24 TO 36 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE AND SHOULD TRACK
SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTH-EASTWARD.
THEN, UP TO 48 TAU, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
TRACK SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD.
BEYOND (DAY 4 AND DAY 5) A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE REBUILT WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS . UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD EQUATORWARD. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE J+2 WITH THE BUILDING OF A SECOND
OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
FUNSO ENCOUNTERS AGAIN HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SST (29°C) AS IT IS GOING
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IT SHOULD DEEPEN REGULARLY.AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT WILL TRACK OVER
LESS ENERGETIQUE WATER, AND WITH A SMALL NORTH NORTHEASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Funso Track Map

Edit #6 (January 24nd 2012  08:00): Tropical Cyclone Funso has gone through steady intensification over the past 12 hours, with an eye that is estimated to be 12 nautical miles wide, these small eyes are often found on more intense systems. The storm has established good outflow to the east-southeast and looks as though it may strengthen further over the coming day or two as it continues moving down the Mozambique Channel. La Reunion has the maximum wind forecast at a conservative 115kt in 24 hours, while the JTWC is more bullish and thinks Funso will approach 140kt with 170kt gusts, regardless of which forecast is correct, Funso is an extremely strong cyclone and one trusts all maritime personal have taken the necessary precautions and are not in the way of this storm. Large seas will likely be affecting the Mozambique coast as well as the Madagascan coast, as the storm moves south over the coming days, it’s possible that rough seas and dangerous currents will occur off the north east South African coast.

Funso 120kt

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 39.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 936 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 300 SW: 90 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 70 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0-, CI=6.0+. THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH AN EYE
BETTER DEFINED, ALWAYS VERY SMALL, BUT COOLER, WITHIN A COLDER CDO. THE
SYSTEM SHOW ALWAYS AN INNER CORE VERY SMALL WITH LESS THAN 60 NM
DIAMETER (REFER TO SSMIS 1504Z) WITH A CURVED BAND MORE THAN AN HALFTURN.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FUNSO KEEPS ON UNDERGOING THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL HIGHS PROLONGATED BY A
RIDGE IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING
SOUTHWARDS.
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR
REGULAR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU60 OVER HIGH HEAT CONTENT
WATERS.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LESS WARM WATERS AND TO WEAKEN
UNDERGOING A STRENGHTENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST ALL THE
TRACKS OVERSEA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE END RESULT

In the end Funso ended up exiting safety out to the south of the Mozambique Channel which was the best scenario possible and saved the damage that could have been done to both Mozambique or Madagascar which was on either side of the cyclone. The storm then dissipated in the hostile environment.

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