Numerous GFS model runs have hinted at the arrival of a
Gordon Richardson of CapeTownSkies.com has continued to comment in the forums of the next cold front likely to hit South Africa this coming weekend. Bringing with it the likely-hood of some moderate falls of rain, strong winds and possible snow.
Situation as of Wednesday 17 June 2009
“The GFS model outputs at 00Z on Wed 17th give a little more clarity to the upcoming weekend. Like most frontal systems so far this winter, it seems more complex than usual. A broad preview can be seen on the synoptic chart at 06Z today: www.weathersa.co.za/ship/ship.gif and the EUMETSAT Antarctic sector: oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/ANTARCTIC/
Currently there are a pair of systems about 4000km west of Cape Town, both of which are forecast to influence the weather. The more northerly of the two is currently quite intense, but will largely have disspated by the time it makes landfall, though the upper-level trough will influence the weather over CT.
The more southerly of the two is forecast to brush past Cape Town on Sat 20th. The two systems will partly merge, bringing very unsettled weather, though mostly to the south of Cape Town.
By Sun 21st a new front is forecast to develop close to CT, bringing likely wet and windy weather into Mon 22nd. The high behind this system should bring very cold air on Mon 22nd.
12Z Update: The 1stweather.com 7-day extended forecast is now available, and gives a very scary outlook (100% rain for Monday 22nd and Tues 23rd!) www.1stweather.com/metrocast/capetown/index_extended.shtml”
Situation as of Thursday 18 June 2009
“The synoptic chart at 00Z today (Thur 18th) shows a developing low and front in the complex system, about 3000km SW of Cape Town. The large high over CT will provide stable weather for the next 24 hours.
The satellite images show a large area of cloud associated with a weak low about 2000km west of CT. Only once this passes will developments on Sat 20th become clearer.
The 00Z GFS model indicates that most of the rain may arrive only on Mon 22nd, so the first part of the weekend may be drier than previous forecast, though probably not sunny.”
Latest Satellite Imagery
Image Credit : South African Weather Service