The past week has seen an onset of what one can describe as winter, temperatures have dropped down to the mid teens for the most part with a succession of cold fronts impacting the Western Cape. The first of the strong cold fronts made landfall early last week, with Saturday the 8th May offering a single day of sunshine, before the next big cold front impacts us here in the Cape.

Rainfall early last week exceeded 30mm in 24 hours in quite a few places and forecasts for tomorrow Sunday the 9 May 2010 are looking as though places could receive in excess of 20mm, with next week Thursday also looking as though it may bring rainfall totals in excess of 30mm. Winds have also been strong at times over the past week with gale force north westerly winds present. Tomorrow Sunday the 9th may see winds exceeding 60km/h at times in places with a tight pressure gradient causing very strong winds off-shore.

While freezing levels have remained a bit high for snow, it is only the beginning of May and if the past week and upcoming week is anything to go by, then the model predictions for an above average rainfall winter season look to be very possible.

During February 2010 the Underberg saw the development of a very large and well defined funnel cloud over the Sangwana Mountain. It occurred during the afternoon hours and it is believed that the funnel cloud never reached the ground, which means it can not be classified as a tornado, though is equally impressive.

The funnel occurred after temperatures rose to 33'C where convective thunderstorm development began in a high CAPE and high shear environment. The instability in the air combined with the right wind profiles allows for a storm to turn super-cellular and can then drop a tornado if conditions are ideal.

There is no way to predict which supercells drop tornadoes and which don't.

The image was taken by Craig Dalgleish

As hurricane season gets closer and closer a picture is being painted of what can be expected, and for those who like tracking it looks like good news, but for those living along the United States Alantic coastline and the Caribbean it is not looking good.

SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) are currently extremely high as the opening of the hurricane season is only 3 weeks away. Looking at the SSTs alone they could be compared to 2005, though in fact they appear to be quite a bit warmer than 2005 was at this point. Jeff Masters from Wunderground has said that the 2010 looks to possibly be a big one for the Atlantic, comparing it to some of the most active seasons seen.

Since 2005 the Atlantic has seen a relatively quiet period with few landfalling hurricanes though this could change in 2010 as SSTs are very supportive of large, strong storms. Though it's important to note that SSTs are just one very small factor in hurricane development and one must look at the Saharan Dust Layer which inhibits development, though according to Masters the SDL is very weak. Another important factor in development of the storms is the amount of shear, this is something that can't be as easily forecast, though long term models are suggesting this may also be conductive for hurricane development.

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are running a little below normal but these will likely raise as temperatures increase in the area. Off the coast of Africa extending to the Caribbean is a different story though with far above average SSTs, over 2'C in some areas.

After quite a few days of Moderate Risk tornado issues for the central plains and surrounding areas, today saw the  National Weather Service in the United States issue the highest possible risk level. And with reason, the conditions were perfect for tornado development. Some chasers were out today chasing these storms, despite the activity being located to the east of the usual chasing areas.

Yazoo City seems to have gotten the brunt of today's activity with official reports of significant damage in Yazoo City, after a long tracking wedge tornado passed through the city. This tornado is believed to possibly be around an EF-4 in strength, though at the time of writing this there weren't too many details available just yet.

But it has been confirmed that there was a large damaging wedge tornado in Yazoo City, as can be seen by the official warning below.

At 1230 PM CDT NWS WAS TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WEDGE TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED IN YAZOO CITY ALL ALONG THIS LONG TRACK TORNDADO! THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.