I have decided to continue the postings of Funso in a separate thread, namely this one. Previously I was discussing both Ethel and Funso together but since now Moderate Tropical Storm Funso is the storm which holds the greatest interest to those in Southern Africa, I figured I will focus solely on Funso for the time being, to discuss Ethel, feel free to head to the forums where we have a general thread topic on both of these systems.

As of 7pm on January 19th, Funso is a moderate tropical storm located in the Mozambique Channel and is forecast to intensify over the upcoming days as it drifts around the channel, moving towards the Mozambique coast where it is then forecast to move away for a while, then move further south and then head towards the west again with potential landfall looking like the Mozambique coast in about 5 or 6 days.

Tropical Storm Funso has been increasing in satellite presentation today and continues to look as though steady intensification is likely over the coming days. The 120 hour forecast is now calling for a 100kt Intense Tropical Cyclone. I advise interests along the Mozambique coast to keep a very close eye on this storm and we should know in a couple days how much attention needs to be paid by those in Northern South Africa, with some of the weather models suggesting that the storm may bring further soaking to the Limpopo province. These model forecast are quite far out though so no one should be panicking or taking the model output as fact, just monitor the system and you will be well informed as the time approaches as to it's likely effects on weather in South Africa.

The latest official forecast information is as follows:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:

CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED LAONG THE DAY WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION FLARRING AND WRAPP
ING AROUND THE CENTER. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY DEPICT AN HINT OF A WARM SPOT IN THE CDO. CO
NSEQUENTLY, INTENSIFICATION COULD BE STRONGER THAN SAID IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR
ECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 36 TO 48 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN A EASTWA
RDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE A NEW WESTWARDS TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER TH E STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STR THAT SHOULD BUILD SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL .

OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCE
SS IS HELD OFF BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE LITTLE NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. TH
IS SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTORS.

WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR THE QUELIMANE
REGION ... WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS
OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
NNNN

Stay tuned to this article for further updates over the coming days!!

Edit #1 (January 20th 2012  08:00) - Overnight Tropical Storm Funso has undergone rapid intensification and is no longer a 40kt tropical storm but rather a 70kt Tropical Cyclone. An eye was visible on satellite imagery earlier and Tropical Cyclone Funso is now expected to become a 110kt intense cyclone in 120 hours. The appearance on satellite is good, it can't be compared to the symmetry often seen in Atlantic hurricanes, but it's looking quite powerful already and is forecast to continue strengthening. Majority of the convection lies to the direct west of the CDO and then also a large area of deep convection in the northern bands, these are the areas likely to be experiencing the heaviest rain from Funso, no doubt that flooding will get underway today in parts of both Mozambique and Madagascar as the northern band of convection is likely to wrap around the east side of the storm. As usual there is some variation between forecasts from La Reunion and the JTWC, the JTWC thinks that Funso will peak in 36 hours as a 115kt storm and then weaken slightly to 105kt as it heads south down the channel. This is already a dangerous cyclone and warrants attention!

The latest forecast from La Reunion:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 39.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5+
FUNSO INTENSIFIES NOW RAPIDLY AND SHOWS A SMALL EYE ON INFRA-RED IMAGERY.
LAST 3 AVERAGE T-NUMBER IS HIGHER (NEAR 5.5-) BUT MENTIONED FT IS LIMITED BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS AND AGREES WITH AN AVERAGE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

NWP MODELS DIVERGE THEN STRONGLY.
TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGE (CF Z500) ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THE BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM.
THE NORTHERN NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD STEERS THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERS IT WESTWARDS.

CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.
FOLLOWING THIS SCENARIO, FUNSO SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY FROM SATURDAY 21/1200Z TO SUNDAY 22/1200Z. DURING THIS SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.
ON AND AFTER SUNDAY 22/1200Z, SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, IT IS EXPECTED TO ADOPT A NEW TRACK EASTWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS.
BEING BACK OVER HIGH HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY 23/1200Z, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRANSITING SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.
FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THIS TRACK ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER REGULAR INTENSIFICATION.

EVEN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERED BY RSMC LA REUNION AS THE MOST LIKELY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WITHIN SATURDAY 21 AND SUNDAY 22 GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
NEAR QUELIMANE OR BEIRA REGIONS .. WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

Edit #2 (January 20th 2012  18:00) Tropical Cyclone Funso has continued to look good today, currently on satellite one is able to see that the CDO is located just off the Mozambique coast and convection wrapping around Funso, primarily on the south west quadrant. Some deep convection can also be seen on the far north east bands. Parts of Mozambique are already experiencing heavy rainfall. Satellite imagery suggests that there is some stable air on the east side of the storm which is inhibiting the symmetry a bit but convection is more consolidated than it was this morning.

The big news is that La Reunion has now forecasted a rare 'Very Intense Tropical Cyclone' to occur. Funso is now forecast to become a 120kt tropical cyclone in 120 hours, that is if you believe La Reunion, JTWC on the other hand has it on a far more conservative side at the same time period. Also of interest was the 00z GFS model run which showed the cyclone getting quite close to the far NE coast of South Africa, but it must be noted that it is too far out to say what impact this storm will have on South African weather, it still looks as though it's going to warrant watching from residents and especially maritime personal in the area. Very rough seas and storm surge are usually associated with coastal areas within proximity to such a strong cyclone. I will continue to bring updates over the coming few days as I watch this amazing form of nature progress.

Here is the latest from La Reunion:

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 38.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5

LAST VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A WARM POINT AND MICRO WAVES CONFIRM THEVERY SMALL SIZE BANDING EYE STRUCTRE OF THE SYSTEM.

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AT FIRST WEST TO SOUTH-WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AND AFTER EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MIDTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
BEYOND 48TAU, NWP MODELS ARE MORE DISPERSED. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBAL RECURVEMENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGEST A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK.
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF ONE.

FOR THE NETX 24 HOURS, PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE AND
WEAKENING OF THE OCEANIC ENERGETIC POTENTIAL (SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM) ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITANT FACTORS FOR DEEPENING.
BEYOND TAU 24, SYSTEM SHOULD RECOVER BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN REGULARLY.

MOST OF THE NWP MODELS EXCLUDE THE LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST BUT THE REGIONS OF QUELIMANE AND BEIRA SHOULD UNDERGO HEAVY
RAINS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

INHABITANTS OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

Edit #3 (January 22nd 2012  00:15): Tropical Cyclone Funso appears to have taken a bit of a beating today as satellite appearances showed what looks to be obvious weakening, what from appearance looks to be caused by dry air on the eastern quadrant, something I referenced in my previous updates. This is very possibly caused by drier air over Madagascar being pulled into the cyclones circulation as well as what appears to be land interaction with the CDO of the cyclone, I would assume drier air in Mozambique has also aided to the decay in satellite appearance. I currently have limited access to internet and as such these assumptions are based solely on satellite appearance and I may be wrong. What it does look like though, is that some of the models have trended to more of an easterly track post-72 hours, slipping down the Mozambique Channel and out to sea instead of making a direct landfall and heading into Mozambique, though the models are still split on which scenario will occur and as such not much weight can be put on the track guidance at this stage. As for intensity, currently I am left wondering and should know more tomorrow morning, but while heavy rain is a given to Mozambique through the next few days, it does look as though the situation is better than it could have been and Funso does appear to be weaker than I and the agencies thought it may be at this stage. It still warrants keeping an eye on though and when I have internet connectivity I will be providing updates, my regular connection will resume tomorrow afternoon. If anything dramatic changes over the next hours though I will make sure I can provide an up to date forecast, though in the meanwhile I suggest that everyone pay close attention to the JTWC or La Reunion warnings that they are issuing for Funso.

Edit #4 (January 22nd 2012  10:15): After looking dismal on satellite appearance last night with a large void of convection on the east quadrant and a disrupted CDO, Funso is looking much better. Convection has increased, particularly in that eastern quadrant with better banding seen in all quadrants. It looks as though tropical cyclone Funso will begin intensifying today as it begins to move away from the coast and then in the next couple days more more SSE. The last JTWC forecast advisory issued on Funso was over 12 hours ago, so I am a bit weary of posting that information now and will wait until their next update. Having a look at the GFS model, the GFS is now more consistent with the idea that tropical cyclone Funso will track SSE off the coast of Mozambique and then head out the channel, passing close to Madagascar. Regardless of landfall heavy rains are to be expected across the coastal parts of Mozambique, the good news is that the latest model guidance is suggest less of a chance of Limpopo receiving more flooding. I will not issue my own track but rather rely on La Reunion and JTWC advisories as these are the most trustworthy sources for cyclone information. I do expect that in 24 hours we may well have a very good looking cyclone in the channel though.

Edit #5 (January 22nd 2012  15:15): New official forecast information

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 38.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 38.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 AND CI=5.0- FUNSO IS BEGINING TO GO SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST EASTWARD AND THEN
INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE LAND IS LESSENING. CONVECTION IS
RESTRUCTURING ABOVE THE CENTRE WITH A BANDING EYE ON SATELITE
IMAGERY.
AT 24 TO 36 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE AND SHOULD TRACK
SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTH-EASTWARD.
THEN, UP TO 48 TAU, A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
TRACK SHOULD RECURVE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD.
BEYOND (DAY 4 AND DAY 5) A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE REBUILT WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS . UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD EQUATORWARD. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GOOD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE J+2 WITH THE BUILDING OF A SECOND
OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
FUNSO ENCOUNTERS AGAIN HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SST (29°C) AS IT IS GOING
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IT SHOULD DEEPEN REGULARLY.AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN AS IT WILL TRACK OVER
LESS ENERGETIQUE WATER, AND WITH A SMALL NORTH NORTHEASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR) SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Edit #6 (January 24nd 2012  08:00): Tropical Cyclone Funso has gone through steady intensification over the past 12 hours, with an eye that is estimated to be 12 nautical miles wide, these small eyes are often found on more intense systems. The storm has established good outflow to the east-southeast and looks as though it may strengthen further over the coming day or two as it continues moving down the Mozambique Channel. La Reunion has the maximum wind forecast at a conservative 115kt in 24 hours, while the JTWC is more bullish and thinks Funso will approach 140kt with 170kt gusts, regardless of which forecast is correct, Funso is an extremely strong cyclone and one trusts all maritime personal have taken the necessary precautions and are not in the way of this storm. Large seas will likely be affecting the Mozambique coast as well as the Madagascan coast, as the storm moves south over the coming days, it's possible that rough seas and dangerous currents will occur off the north east South African coast.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 39.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 936 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 300 SW: 90 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 70 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0-, CI=6.0+. THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH AN EYE
BETTER DEFINED, ALWAYS VERY SMALL, BUT COOLER, WITHIN A COLDER CDO. THE
SYSTEM SHOW ALWAYS AN INNER CORE VERY SMALL WITH LESS THAN 60 NM
DIAMETER (REFER TO SSMIS 1504Z) WITH A CURVED BAND MORE THAN AN HALFTURN.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FUNSO KEEPS ON UNDERGOING THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL HIGHS PROLONGATED BY A
RIDGE IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING
SOUTHWARDS.
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR
REGULAR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU60 OVER HIGH HEAT CONTENT
WATERS.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LESS WARM WATERS AND TO WEAKEN
UNDERGOING A STRENGHTENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST ALL THE
TRACKS OVERSEA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

The Indian Ocean looks to be in full swing at the moment, usually the bulk of tropical development in the SW Indian occurs in late summer months February and March, though it looks like we're off to an early start. This past week we had Tropical Depression Dando which moved westward into southern Mozambique and then whose remnants moved into South Africa where it is still causing flooding issues for some parts including Limpopo Province in particular. This storm was not very intense and wind speeds with it were below 45kt.

But we already have 2 new areas of interest in the SW Indian Ocean, one of which has the potential for effecting South African weather in a week or so. Invest 95S is located in the Mozambique Channel and has already showed signs of organization over the past several hours and to me it looks as though it may have a good opportunity to become a tropical depression and deepen further into a tropical storm or even a cyclone over the next few days. The other system is 94S which lies to the far east of Madagascar and poses less of a direct threat to the African continent in the near future.

I am guessing that 95S will develop first and go on to become Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Ethel. The GFS model then shows Tropical Storm Ethel (currently 95S) intensifying and heading south down the channel and then moving west into what is the middle to southern parts of east Mozambique. It would be difficult to get a direct South African landfall from this angle but it is possible that after making landfall this system could then drift south and bring heavy rain to the northern parts of S.A, though this system, should it develop has the potential to impact South African weather, it looks like it would be quite probable for it to have a harsh effect on Mozambique.

The system is still in it's early days and not yet even named, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on, at least out of interest's sake. Model forecasts a week ahead, especially tropical ones - can be subject to a large margin of error so definitely don't take the current track as fact as it's likely to change assuming the storm develops.

Long range models are also showing the potential for another system in about 14 days to develop near Madagascar.

I will post updates in this article as the storm progresses in it's development, but also be sure to check out the forum thread on this system: http://www.stormchasing.co.za/forum/12-hurricanes-cyclones-and-typhoons/6070-tropical-sw-indian-ocean-19-24-jan-2012#6081

Update #1 (19 January 2012 07:00): Over the past 16 hours both Invest 94S and Invest 95S have been developing and have been upgraded to Tropical Depression 7 and Tropical Disturbance 8 respectively. With both storms developing pretty quickly it's difficult to tell who will assume the name Tropical Storm Ethel and who will become Tropical Storm Funso. As it stands at the moment it looks as though 95S which is the storm in the Mozambique Channel may be the one to assume to the name of Funso.

95S forecasts look bullish with a 165km/h Tropical Cyclone forecast by Meteo France. This would be very dangerous, most likely to residents in Mozambique or Madagascar, depending on which way the storm moves. The GFS shows the potential for extreme flooding along the Mozambique east coast in about 5 to 6 days, and this storm has the potential to impact areas already effected this past week by SubTropical Depression Dando including the possibility for more heavy rain over northern South Africa. The current GFS run shows the storm moving into Mozambique and then heading WSW, with some impact on South African rainfall.

I will once again reiterate, these storms can change their heading easily and either be stronger or weaker, or make landfall in a different area than forecast a day or two prior. By no means should one look at these forecasts and take it as fact, every weather forecast is subject to change and I expect we will see change with this one too, but definitely worth keeping an eye on it, extreme northern South Africa could face some more flooding and if the forecast holds things look a lot worse for Mozambique.

The following is a Meteo France official forecast on 95S:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 41.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2012/01/19 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS BUILT NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE LAST HOURS.
1834Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS NOW MAXIMUM WINDS AT ABOUT 20/25 KT WITHIN A WELL DEFINED CLOCKWISE CIRCUL
ATION.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) AND ALSO AVNO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUT
HWESTWARDS FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 48 TO 60 HOURS AND THEN A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK.
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST, ONLY THE VICINITY OF THE
COAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS MAY LIMITATE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

Update #2 (19 January 2012 14:00): As of 14:00 on Thursday the 19th January, the storms in question have continued to intensify, the first to be named as expected in the previous update was 07S which is now Tropical Storm Ethel, while the closer to home 08S is has now become a tropical depression, namely Tropical Depression 8. This tropical depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Funso in the next day or two and is likely to meander around the Mozambique coast for a while before models have the storm heading inland in about a week. This system poses major flooding risks for Mozambique over the next few days and I am afraid we may see the potential for fatalities in that area if the storm behaves as forecast. The longer the storm meanders just off-shore the more rainfall that is likely to fall over eastern Mozambique. In the slightly longer range the models have what we assume will be Tropical Storm Funso moving SSW and the latest GFS run shows Funso dumping a bunch of rain on the already saturated Limpopo province in about 8 or 9 days. All those in Mozambique and Limpopo should keep a close eye on the system, though it's too early to issue any warnings for S.A related to this system it does bear watching!

NEW UPDATES ARE TAKING PLACE ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE: http://www.stormchasing.co.za/articles-and-news/224-tropical-cyclone-funso

So we're into the summer season now and with the summer season comes an increase in tropical activity off the east coast of South Africa. These summer cyclones that occur usually don't have an effect on South African weather and tend to move south before approaching the S.A coast line, though is not always the case and storms like Eline in 2000 which made landfall in Mozambique. There have been a handful of cyclones which have had at least some impact on South African weather in the past.

Currently there is a subtropical depression off the far east coast of South Africa which is forecast by the computer models to move in a generally WNW motion over the next day or so and make landfall in Mozambique. Now I feel it is important that I make the point that forecasts change all the time and one can't pinpoint landfall or intensity with full success. But I don't expect it to make a direct landfall with South Africa, that is to say, I agree with the official Meteo France forecasts as they are one of the best providers of tropical forecasts for the Southern Indian ocean.

As it stands at the moment, the storm is forecast to strengthen prior to making landfall and then impact as a moderate tropical storm. Dando has the potential to bring some heavy rain to the northern parts of South Africa, though a lot will depend on the landfall position. I urge no one to turn this storm into another alarmist viral e-mail and give the Government reason to pass the recent amendments bill, there is no reason to be alarmed at this stage, though interests along the far north east coast are advised to at least keep an eye on updates. Though personally I expect the impact for South Africa to be limited to the potential for the outer bands to go over South African soil and not too see much action from Dando apart from rain and maritime related issues.

The storm itself is not forecast to get very strong and maximum windspeeds forecast at 45kt, something we see here occasionally in the Cape with strong cold fronts, so assuming it stays on the current track, S.A shouldn't really feel any of the wind effects. But definitely keep an eye on it in the far northern parts of South Africa, as I feel that there may be some rainfall associated with it over the coming days and it has the potential to be heavy rains and possible flooding, though again - this depends a lot on how the storm evolves and where it makes landfall. But worth keeping an eye on.

The latest forecast is as follows:

632 
WTIO30 FMEE 151231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20112012
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION  6

2.A POSITION 2012/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT
DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 240 SW: 370 NW: 60
34 KT NE:  SE: 90 SW: 90 NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/16 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/16 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/17 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/01/17 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 32.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LAST ANIMATED PICTURES DEPICT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
ASCAT DATA AT 0700Z SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE WINDFIELD STRUCTURE IS ASSYMETRIC IN RELATION WITH
THE GRAIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15KT.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
SLIGHT SLOWDOWN AND A TRACK CURVING NORTH-WESTWARD. ACTUALLY SYSTEM
IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED OVER SOUTH OF SOUTH-AFRICA. CONSEQUENTLY,
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF THE SOUTH
MOZAMBIQUE BY ABOUT 24H TAU.

ON ITS TRACK, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDTIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SHOULD TAKE A TROPICAL STRUCTURE
BEFORE THE LANDFALL : FAVORABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT, GOOD EAST AND
SOUTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH AN
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

MOST OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN  GOOD AGREEMENT  FOR
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDFALL THAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED AT THE MAXIMUM STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN THE BAY
OF MAPUTO.=

Source: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/station/FMEE/WTIO30.FMEE

Navigation can be hard with language difference, but http://www.meteo.fr offers updated cyclonic information.

As I am sure many of you know if you've been keeping an eye on the news, the new South African Weather Service Amendment Bill which seeks to censor sites like this, has come under great scrutiny. Personally, I think it's great that so many large names are getting behind the cause to fight a bill that would censor areas that people don't really think of all that often.

I have been in contact with Randolf from www.weather.co.za who is going to be attending the Parliamentary public hearings on the bill next week. And I have requested he be the representative speaker for me and stormchasing.co.za while there and asked that he present the following piece on my behalf.

Storm Chasing South Africa is a private non-profit website founded in 2009 as a personal expansion of a hobby and interest of mine, namely severe weather. I provide articles based on my opinion of what the weather may be doing. At no stage in my articles do I claim that my information is official and in no way do I seek to cause alarm or spread misinformation. I also provide an online forum where users are able to discuss upcoming weather events and severe weather threats, also in an environment that nowhere claims to be official information.

The SA Weather Service amendment bill includes the ban of the general public or other meteorological agencies issuing severe weather warnings, while I can see how this can easily be manipulated into sounding as though the bill will be doing the general favour to the public by removing hoax e-mails and fake stories about upcoming severe weather events, it in fact is just the monopolization of meteorological information.

Firstly I'd like to bring attention to the wording used in the bill. The new amendments within the bill under section 30 and in particular section 30(a) are far too broad. It states no person may issue a severe weather warning without the necessary written permission of the Weather Service. The issue here is that a severe weather warning is a blanket term which has not been described in enough detail for it to be understood. If I were to make a post on my website with the content mentioning the potential for thunderstorms, would that be included in the bills definition of a severe weather warning? Would I be prosecuted? What if I was to say that it looks like there is going to be a heatwave? Under this bill, one is forced to refrain from the publication of any kind of weather information that may be of interest.

I'd now like to bring attention to how the weather services are operated in other countries, for example the United States. In the United States of America, the government sponsored environmental websites such as www.weather.gov operate free of charge to the public, where their intention is the safety of U.S citizens. The U.S has a similar law in place as the one proposed in the South African Weather bill, but with one fundamental differences, while in the United States only the National Weather Service may issue official severe weather warnings, the general public and other weather agencies still have the legal right to issue their own warnings.

Another outlandish clause in the bill is that it will be illegal to spread "false or misleading information about the South African Weather Service". That sentence sums up the amendment bill pretty accurately. It is a clear indication that it's not safety or integrity of information that the South African Weather Service is worried about, it's about becoming an untouchable monopoly that can be corrupt and flawed to any degree but at the same time an untouchable entity. Who would determine if the information is false and misleading, most likely a judge. What this does, is use fear into scaring people into making sure that they never criticize the Weather Service and that doing so may land them in jail or even just in court.

I see no evidence that this bill or the South African Weather Service are trying to increase safety and awareness, The reason for the bill, in all likeliness is to create a monopoly that would allow for a single channel of uninterrupted revenue. If this bill were to be passed, it would mean that there would be no alternative for information to the general public, they would be forced to use the South African Weather Service. The South African Weather Service over the years has become increasingly profit orientated, something that contradicts the ideas of increasing safety among the public. For anyone who has been a frequent visitor to the South African Weather Service website, as I have, over the past 10 years, you would have seen the shift it took from being a source of information to a business model. The website has undergone several redesigns in the past 10 years, each redesign lending itself to easier income, while each redesign also limiting the amount of free information. As an official weather service who's responsibilities are to protect the public, I see no place for a business model - unless only those wealthy enough to afford the insane costs of membership are worth protection.

As I touched on earlier, I am no stranger to the annoying hoax e-mails that get passed along with the South African Weather Service logo on them, and I whole heartedly agree that it's something that must be handled and punished. But there is a huge gap between impersonating the South African Weather Service and forecasting severe weather unofficially, especially since vast majority of us that do it unofficially offer disclaimers stating that we are not an official source.

There is large support for the bill being scrapped and media sources all over publishing content on the ludicrous nature of the bill. If it were truly imperative to safety and well being of the public, one would imagine that the public themselves would come out in support of the bill, instead of rallying behind how it's just another form of censorship and monopolization with some going so far as to describe it as a breach of the constitution, which would probably be an accurate statement.

In closing I'd like people to think about the bill and the reasons behind it. If you are looking to increase the safety of the general public, this bill is not how one is going to achieve that. All this bill will do is monopolize meteorology in South Africa, it will censor weather enthusiasts, it will turn what should be awareness into a complete business model and ultimately it will make the country look like a joke internationally. As stated in opening, I make no money from my website, I stand to lose nothing financially. But I am unable to sit back and have my interests and opinions censored so that a corporation can turn over a good profit. I, along with the others involved in local weather related sites have poured thousands of hours of work and money to bring a service to the public and provide a free platform to communicate.

I have faith that it will be as easy as it is to me to see the flaws and ludicrousy in this bill and the unwarranted censorship that it will enforce.

I urge everyone else able to make it to the hearings next week to please do so and voice your concern over this bill.

Edited to add: I would like to PS on this article given the response from the Government about the bill. Firstly I'd like to state that I have no desire to 'bash' the SAWS about other things, I along with many others were annoyed by the price for products they offer, but while not liking it, I could understand their position from a degree and saw that apart from getting more government funding, it was needed to keep the site going, and to pay the salaries of the mets who work there, many of which are great guys who I'm sure oppose this bill.

In particular I would like to respond to the government's response. They stated in the press release that they gave in response to the media and public's cries of 'crazy' over the bill, stating that the bill was needed to keep people from spreading hoax information. A point which I addressed in my original draft and one that I can completely understand. What I don't understand is how if that is the purpose of the bill, solely, how come it was written in such broad terms that would apply to all other weather related services. Are these bills drafted by people with terrible English comprehension or just a lack of common sense? And why then the extra clause that prohibits people from criticizing the South African Weather Service.

I will state it on record, I would completely support a clause that reduces the number of hoax e-mails being spread. But I will only do this if those drafting the bill actually come up with a feasible way of doing so, without being lazy and taking down the rest of the weather community with them. If they were to do that, I may believe this was about public interest and not about a monopoly.