We seem to be experiencing stronger storms here in the
It’s been a while since the previous update, but as you can see from the last update the models were accurate in developing Hurricane Bill. Bill was first named when he became a tropical storm while tracking across the Atlantic, it was the first ‘Cape Verdes’ type hurricane of the 2009 hurricane season and also went on to become the first major hurricane of the season. Hurricane Bill managed to reach maximum sustained winds of 115 knots and became a category 4 hurricane.
As of the afternoon of August 21st Hurricane Bill had dropped in intensity, but to much surprise there was a second eyewall present and it appeared Bill may be going through another eyewall replacement cycle. While large strong hurricanes do go through eyewall replacement cycles, Bill seemed to have quite a few ERCs in a short period of time.
After the suspected ERC is completed Hurricane Bill is likely to regain some strength before encountering shear and colder water temperature.
The model handling of Bill has not been great in the long term and many of the models were originally showing an east coast or gulf coast hit, at one stage the GFS showed a New Orleans hit, which thankfully never panned out. As it stands now most models take Bill off the NE coast of the United States and gives a possible landfall in Nova Scotia, with possible strong winds experienced in Halifax, Canada.
As the Atlantic stands at the moment, a 3 day flurry saw the naming of 3 storms and with a week of “quiet” models are hinting at another possible storm to form from a wave that has left the African coast and is currently over the Atlantic. This area is being watched for signs of development by the National Hurricane Center.