The main thing I would add to this discussion so far, is that the models indicate favourable conditions over the Mozambique Channel for the next week. The longer any developing cyclone remains over water, the more chance of intensification.
At longer durations (5-7 days) the models disagree on the likely track. There are only 3 ways out of the channel, 2 involving landfall (Mozambique and Madagascar), the 3rd is for the storm to recurve south and then east over the Indian Ocean. Landfall in South Africa seems extremely remote at this stage.
It would be interesting if two storms developed in the same week, making this thread quite complex!
Note: The US Navy JTWC portal has been malfunctioning for the last few days, hence my lack of regular updates:
www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC
Edit: The SAWS reports further massive rainfall totals from TD Dando in the 24 hours to 8am on Thurs 19th:
metzone.weathersa.co.za/images/PDF_docs/nr_daily_rai.pdf
Highest were Acornhoek (MP) 198mm, Skukuza (MP) 140mm, Hoedspruit (LP) 107mm, etc.
