Numerous model runs have indicated the likely formation of a
The main focus of attention at the moment is a cut-off low pressure system which is present over the Namibia/Botswana border. This system is forecast to deepen further over the next 2 days and move in a south easterly direction and then move towards the Kwazulu-Natal coast.
This cut-off low is likely to be the cause of flash flooding for several areas throughout South Africa, some of the forecast models predicting in excess of 50mm in a 3 hour period and over 100mm in a 24 hour period. Should these figures materialize, flooding is likely to occur on quite a significant scale. Areas near Bloemfontein are expected to experience heavy rainfalls today, Tuesday, while the northern parts of the Eastern Cape, as well as Kwazulu Natal are likely to experience heavy rains from Wednesday through Friday.
Severe thunderstorms also look like a possibility along the dryline according to a local meteorologist, where a tripple point situation is said to have the potential to exist. This would mean an area of good instability as well as some ripping shear, the kind of situation that can spawn tornadoes. If the instability is strong enough and discrete thunderstorms can form along this point, given the amount of shear, it’s possible that we may see some supercell formations.
Cut-off lows occassionally form at this latitude, but when they do, they often bring a large severe weather event with them. Sparking massive floods, severe thunderstorms and strong winds.
This system also saw the South African Weather Service release a new feature for the first time where a prominent alert on a severe weather system was given, along with a detailed analysis of the storm. This is definitely a very interesting free product and I hope to see more from the SAWS in this regard, I’ve always been a big fan of the articles with details analysis that they used to release. I hope to see more like this in future for strong cold fronts too.
There is a discussion in the forum on this event underway.