First, here’s a photograph I took last night on July
We’ve been following the forecasts for a few days now regarding some extremely positive trends from both the GFS and EURO forecast models relating to a couple of cold fronts which are forecast to make landfall over the next week.
The first system of interest is likely to arrive on Saturday afternoon, bringing with it strong winds and rainfall. The rainfall totals from this event are not extremely impressive, with the GFS predicting around 7mm. The low pressure associated with this front is located to the far south of the continent and the Cape will see only the tail end of the front brushing over land. While strong winds are likely to be experienced throughout the day on Saturday, rainfall will be quite short lived and rainfall should dissipate by Sunday morning.
The Real Talking Point
The system of interest is far more exciting. An extremely strong cold front has been forecast by the models for mid next week. The forecast models have been a bit back and forth with regards to the type of conditions we should expect from the storm, some forecasting a strong likelihood of snow, while others showing a more rain and wind orientated event. None the less, it does seem likely that the Cape will see a strong storm push through late on Tuesday through Thursday next week.
Rainfall associated with this storm has been forecast to be within the range of 30 to 60mm, which would be great for some of the Cape dams. With dam levels now reaching critical levels, some relief may be just around the corner. Of course, if the Cape does receive the optimistic forecasts of 50mm+-, it would still be but a fraction of what is needed, though at this point anything would help.
Cold conditions along with extremely large swells and gale force winds appear likely with the current forecast. Some sources are showing swell of 10 meters on Wednesday, along with 40kt gusts in coastal areas around the Cape, this thanks to the strong ridging to the NW of the low. It’s not often that we see such strong low pressures close to Cape Town, and should the forecasts materialize, it would definitely be a noteworthy storm for the Cape.
Of course, over the past few weeks the models have been struggling to grasp onto forecasts correctly and we’ve seen several rain events bust. However, the models have been consistent in showing a strong storm and we’re watching it closely for any changes that may occur in the forecast. Any forecasts made a week out are subject for drastic changes.
But here’s to hoping….