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First Invest of 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

 UPDATE

Invest 90L has been deactivated due to the circulation being absorbed by another system. One should keep monitoring the waters around Florida over the next few days as the development of a second low looks quite possible.

The first invest of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season was issued today, Monday 18th May 2009. The suspect area is situated to the north of Cuba, as can be expected with a system in the early stages there is little organization at present and convection remains fairly moderate. Model data over the past few days has continued to favour a solution of the low moving towards Florida and then depending on the model either going right up the coast or going left into the Gulf of Mexico.

Should this invest become a tropical depression it will come near 2 weeks before the official start of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season which forecasters have suggest will have a low to average number of storms. Though the development of an early A-lettered would suggest otherwise. For those interested in severe weather tracking the Atlantic Hurricane Season can be a fun and exciting activity and a chance to witness history in the making.

Below is a quote from the National Hurricane Center regarding Invest 90L

“SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN CUBA…THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS…AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY…IF NECESSARY.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…LESS THAN 30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.”

One is able to see they have scheduled a possible ‘recon’ mission, for those who are unaware what ‘recon’ does, is when there is a potential tropical system which has the potential to effect the United States, they will send out an aeroplane to get information about the developing or developed storm. This information can confirm the existence of a closed circulation and is often the make or break of defining a system as a tropical disturbance. These planes measure wind speed, direction, pressures and numerous other variables. They are also then added to the model runs which help in accurately forecast the trajectory of the system.

 Invest 90l 2009

Image Credits : NRL Monterey

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