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Holy Active Indian Ocean Batman!

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1999 Cape Town – Manenburg ‘Tornado’

On the 28 August 1999 Cape Town was subject to

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Another Stormy Weekend

28 May 2009 Update The latest GFS model run (18z,

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Gets First Spark

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Gets First Spark

While we’re still more than 2 months away from the official opening of the 2011 hurricane season in the Atlantic, the weather is starting to get a little interesting already. While Spring has just started showing in North America, we already have an invest in the Atlantic off the African coast. While no one is expecting much to amount from Invest 90L, it certainly showed good circulation and SHIPS model guidance suggests it could even reach 35kt. Not sure whether this would become a fully tropical storm or a sub, or extra-tropical storm should it form but if it did form it certainly would open a lot of eyes.

Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are still relatively cool as winter is only just now departing. Hurricane activity is most active from June and July onwards, in the Northern Hemisphere’s summer months, with late summer being the most active. With that said, there have been many cases of early tropical depressions or tropical storms within the Atlantic. Invest 90L would in all reality likely face cool SSTs and harsh amounts of shear, and development is highly unlikely, though is this a sign of the season to come? Should conditions support development so early in the season one can expect quite a media hype prior to the official start of the season.

This year will be the 6th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina which devastated parts of New Orleans, though while at the time after Katrina’s landfall global warming theorists were going off about Katrina signaling the start to a slippery slope of increased hurricane activity we never saw the numbers agree. 2005 was a record Hurricane season in almost all accounts and will go down in history as one of the deadliest, though since then we have had quite a few seasons of very minimal activity, definitely not what the dooms day theorists were speculating on. In 2008 we saw Hurricane Ike do some extreme damage to Texas, though definitely not a succession of strong storms making landfall.

Current model guidance for Invest 90L in the Atlantic at present is not showing much of a threat to anyone across the Atlantic even if it should develop. The motion of the invest is wsw with both BAM models looping the system back towards Africa, in the opposite direction that climatology suggests.

We’ll continue monitoring Invest 90L and will bring any updates should anything significant end up occurring – You can also share your thoughts by commenting on the article or joining out forum discussion on Invest 90L in the Atlantic.

invest 90l 2011

TWD EXERT

_____________________________________________________________

FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC…A 1008 MB LOW SPINS NEAR 34N17W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR AREA ALONG
30N13W 27N16W 25N20W. THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY PRODUCING SCATTED
WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW SUPPORTS THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION LINGERING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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