A strong cold front pushed through the Western Cape this Easter weekend, moderate winds, some heavy falls of rain and rough seas were present in places on Saturday and Sunday. This storm system also brought us the first snow of the year with webcam images from Sutherland on Sunday showing light snow accumulation on the ground. Thick fog covered much of the Cape Town area early on Friday prior to the approach of the front, which gave way to some higher clouds later in the day followed by an increase in winds and eventually rainfall late on Friday night into Saturday morning.

Looking at the models it appears as though there will be a warm period this week with temperatures possibly reaching the mid-20s, before the next cold front arrives, though on the long range GFS there are no real signs of intense storm systems, apart from a cold front sliding up the East Coast in a couple weeks forecast to bring some heavy rains to Kwazulu-Natal, though these forecasts are too far out to focus on.

As a side note, in the United States the focus has been on tornado season which has been in the media a bit with several tornadoes ripping through parts of Dallas, Fort Worth in Texas last week. Dallas, despite being well within tornado alley, rarely actually sees much tornado action. The first estimates on the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season are also starting to come in from the professional long term forecasters, a focus has been put on what looks like the return of El Nino, which historically is known to dramatically lessen the average number of hurricanes in a season.

Today marks the date of the autumnal equinox for the Southern Hemisphere, while the Northern Hemisphere welcome Spring. As far as weather in concerned, this means we can start expecting to see a change in weather patterns that are more associated with the winter months. The summer troughs that bring rainfall to the summer rainfall areas of South Africa will begin to become less abundant, while the high pressure systems which bring summer heat to the southern and western parts of South Africa will become less established, allowing for low pressure systems to have more affect on the weather and bring more rainfall to these areas.

While summer is by no means completely over in this transitional period we can note that this year's summer has been a mixed bag thus far. We had some severe thunderstorms with a number of tornadoes early in the spring, but as summer came the severe weather remained only moderately noteworthy, at least as far as severe thunderstorms go. The Western Cape saw periods of moderate temperatures between short spells of heatwaves, some of them quite intense and pushing over 40'C in places. While there were some large fires this year in the Western Cape, the usual Table Mountain, Hottentots Holland and Gordon's Bay mountains got off quite easy (though it remains a year round threat). For the Western Cape and Cape Town area specifically, we are entering our most promising period for thunderstorm development, over the past 7 years the best thunderstorms have all occurred between March and May.

The real interesting talking point this season thus far though, was the tropical activity in the Indian Ocean. Each year there are tropical systems that occur off the far east coast of South Africa, but most of these slip south before ever really being picked up on South Africa's radar, so to speak. This year was different though and saw several close calls as well as some severe flooding caused. Dando was the first when it's weak tropical depression remnants moved over Limpopo causing severe flooding. Both Funso and Giovanna peaked the interest of the general public as they came quite close to the South African border. Irina was also a fascinating storm that continued to defy forecasts throughout it's life, looping around and sparing KZN from a potentially deadly disaster. Though it was enough to bring heavy rains to the province.

In the Northern Hemisphere things were also interesting, naturally this was their winter period, though many in the United States will argue they never felt it. Conditions were very mild in the southern US states this winter with snowfall being somewhat confined to the central plains, north eastern and north western states. Europe also saw a prolonged period of warm weather, though this was broken by a harsh cold snap about a month ago which dumped record snowfall in places.

As Spring approaches in the northern hemisphere it's time for you storm chasing enthusiasts to pull out the weather models for the USA as they head into tornado season and hurricane season come June. They seem to be entering Spring and Summer ahead of schedule, what this means for tornadoes and hurricanes, we will find out...

Tropical storm Irina is currently located off the east coast of South Africa and as can be expected, the storm remains fairly weak, this is mainly due to the fact that the water temperatures as far south as tropical storm Irina is, are less conductive for strengthening than further north. I think it's important for people to realize though, that judging by the latest official forecasts, that this storm is not by any means over for South Africa and the main impact looks like it will take place later this week, with the brunt of the storm likely being felt on Friday into the weekend.

Irina is forecast to weaken further over the next day or two and weaken down to a 30kt depression, whereafter it is forecast to begin moving further north and to the west again where it will begin to re-intensify and is once again forecast to become a tropical cyclone before making landfall on late Thursday into Friday in extreme southern Mozambique. This storm has a history for remaining weaker than forecast, so it's quite possible that it will never reach tropical cyclone strength, but those in the path of it, at least for now, should prepare for one. The forecast windspeed at landfall at present is 70kt with higher gusts. The increase in strength in days 3-4 is due to an increase in sea surface temperatures as well as increased upper level divergence and lower wind shear.

The area of heavy rainfall associated with Irina looks to become far more concentrated with the latest GFS model run, showing very heavy rains but only within the direct landfall area of the storm. The surrounding areas, it's showing only light to moderate rainfall for the most part, though this of course is subject to change.

It is important to discuss the alternate scenarios as forecast by the models. While the official forecast agencies have currently forecast a landfall to take place, the ECMWF (EURO) model forecasts another weakness in the ridge as we get into the latter parts of the weekend, this would move tropical storm Irina south again as it approaches the coast, but then move it to the south east. Should this scenario occur, there is a chance that far less effects of Irina will be felt than is forecast. I will be keeping an eye on both the GFS and the EURO and see if they continue to differ or if one follows the other's scenario.

Over the weekend tropical storm Irina caused severe flooding in parts of KZN with 24 hour totals in places receiving in excess of 200mm. The Durban beaches were closed, as large swell up to 6 meters pounded the KZN coastline and hundreds of houses were flooded. The break along the Durban coastline showed just why fatalities occur with these storms as many waves looked like a surfers dream.

The storm still very much warrants watching this week as another round of severe weather for South Africa is certainly possible, though as mentioned above, it's also possible that the storm may move away without any landfall and thus restrict the damage and severity to rough seas.

A gallery of images of Irina can be found here: IOL IRINA GALLERY

For previous discussions on Irina, visit: Tropical Storm Irina

Update 5 March 2012 (14:00): Well once again the forecast has changed as the models changed. The official forecast seems to now be siding with the EURO model in forecasting the storm to continue looping and then fall victim to a weakness in the ridge to the south and end up heading eastwards again before making landfall. The system is more compact than it was over the weekend and this could mean that rainfall, if any, is limited. One can note that this change in track forecast also means a change in intensity forecast due to the cooler SSTs it will experience. The latest forecast now calls for the storm not to reach cyclone status once more!

Update 6 March 2012 (12:00): Tropical storm Irina remains weak off the east coast of South Africa with the new official forecasts from La Reunion and JTWC both calling for the storm to dissipate without making landfall over the next few days as it continues it's loop. The GFS model shows the cyclone coming close to the KZN coast and even having an affect with heavy rain, but the official forecasts and the other models do not show this. It looks like Irina should slowly fizzle out in the week.

Update 7 March 2012 (08:00): Irina is not done yet. Once again there is a twist in the tale, and quite frankly, this is starting to get a little frustrating. Just as one thinks they have the storm pegged, the forecast upper air pattern changes and as does the forecast track. The latest model runs are showing tropical storm Irina remaining fairly weak with winds between 35kt and 50kt over the next few days, but they are once again showing landfall taking place! Landfall is now forecast for next Tuesday in Mozambique as a weak tropical depression. The latest forecast and model runs also show the weak storm coming very close to South Africa once again, bringing with it the potential of some moderate to heavy rain for KZN between day 4 and 6 primarily. As with every forecast, all there is to go on is the upper air dynamics and what the models are suggesting may happen and the reason for the inconsistent forecasts are because the models keep depicting different synoptic conditions. Irina still warrants keeping an eye on, even though the chances for destruction have greatly diminished since last week, the potential for flooding has increased since Monday. A tropical depression has weak winds, but can still dump a lot of rain, though the models are currently suggesting bulk of the rainfall will fall over the ocean before becoming a bit 'drier' prior to landfall. These things as I'm sure everyone realizes now, can change at any time though.

Update 9 March 2012 (08:00): Irina has weakened over the past couple of days and is now a tropical depression with winds between 50 and 60km/h, so equivalent to a typical Cape Town cold front in the winter. The storm is forecast to weaken further as it moves west and then north-west, making landfall as a big pile of rain in a few days. It looks unlikely now that the storm will have an impact on South African weather and I think the guard can be let down, it would need to do something very special to cause problems here from it's current position and strength. Of course if you were planning a weekend just off the southern Mozambique coast, you can expect unpleasant conditions.

NOTE: This article is edited with updates pertaining to the latest information on Irina, scroll down to the bottom of the article for the latest.

The excitement continues in the South West Indian Ocean this year with another tropical storm located just off the Mozambique coast which has already brought heavy rains to the area with the bulk of the convection located on the West-Northwest side of the storm. This storm is forecast by the JTWC to move south in the Mozambique Channel while strengthening to cyclone strength by the end of tomorrow (Thursday).

The JTWC intensity guidance suggests that the storm will become cyclone Irina and will top out at 75kt sustained with 90kt gusts as it moves south and then west.

The track of Irina is certainly an interesting one and brings it very close to South Africa as a depression after making landfall in southern Mozambique. The JTWC track looks a bit further south than the GFS model has been showing, but based on the JTWC, heavy rains would be possible in Limpopo as a result of the storm. Currently it appears to be a very 'wet' storm with deep convection, which increases the possibility for rainfall effecting South Africa.

One will be able to get a better handle on both track and intensity in the next 36 hours, but it's definitely another storm to keep an eye on. This is certainly a very active Indian Ocean year and may well see more to watch in the coming weeks.

The latest from the JTWC is as follows:

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280121Z FEB 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 43.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.8S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.6S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.1S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.9S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.9S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.7S 34.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.2S 32.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 43.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 14S IS OVERCOMING THE IMPEDIMENTS OF HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS NOW INTENSIFYING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ASSESSMENTS AND A PRESSURE REPORT FROM JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND, WHICH IS NEAR THE STORM CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OFF THE CAPE ST ANDRE REGION AND SLOWLY GATHERING STRENGTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, BUT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A REGION OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THAT IS ALSO REFLECTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS, WHICH INDICATE A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 28-29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATED AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BETTER ORGANIZATION AND TIGHTER BANDING. TC 14S IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE. THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING INTO THE DOMINANT FORCE AND WILL DRIVE TC 14S ACROSS THE CHANNEL AND INTO MOZAMBIQUE, NORTH OF MAPUTO. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 280121Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 280130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 010300Z.
//
NNNN

Update 1 March 2011 (08:00): Over the past 12 hours Irina has developed an impressive eye on microwave imagery and moved a bit further east than originally forecast, at 08:00 the center of Irina appeared to be just over the land of Madagascar, forecast to move away from the island over the next coming hours. Both the JTWC and La Reunion seem to indicate a similar track, bringing it into southern Mozambique. With the current forecast path from JTWC and La Reunion, it's very possible that South Africa may witness flooding from this event. It's still a way out and difficult to say, but the track is looking somewhat similar to Dando in regards to landfall location. I definitely think this warrants watching for those in northern KZN and Limpopo province. The current track path looks to be one of the closest to a direct South African landfall in quite some time. The intensity guidance is also suggesting that the storm will make landfall as a strong cyclone. Assuming it follows the current track forecast it would likely bring very large swells to KZN, possible strong winds and flooding for potentially KZN, Limpopo and Swaziland. La Reunion is forecasting then cyclone Irina to pass directly over Swaziland as a weakening tropical depression. The forecast does call for quick weakening after landfall, so assuming it does effect South Africa, one would assume heavy rain would be the issue.

The latest text from JTWC and image from La Reunion below.

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.7S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.9S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.6S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.2S 35.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.2S 33.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.5S 32.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 43.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (IRINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 14S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS TO 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 (KNES/FMEE) TO 65 (PGTW) KNOTS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE CENTER. TC 14S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96 WHEN THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Update 1 March 2012 (21:00): The South African Weather Service has put together an excellent press release on Irina that provides some good information regarding rainfall totals and a look at the track models over the next coming days. It is good to see that they have put an effort into creating an informative product and credit must be given where credit is due, hopefully we will see more press releases like this in future from the SAWS in regards to severe weather activities. CLICK TO VIEW PRESS RELEASE

Update 2 March 2012 (14:00): Tropical storm Irina continues to move away from Madagascar and westward through the Mozambique Channel. The storm is weaker than was previously forecast, but is still expected to become a tropical cyclone as it approaches the far southern Mozambique coast over the next couple of days. It looks as though the effects will be felt in South Africa as early as tomorrow as the outer bands of the cyclone approach Mozambique. By Saturday evening it looks like heavy rainfall will begin to affect parts of KZN and Swaziland. The rainfall will then likely continue for Sunday and Monday and possibly Tuesday too. This prolonged period of heavy rainfall is likely to cause vast areas of flooding and precautions should be taken, remember to monitor water levels and be sure to bring any pets inside should the water begin to submerge your garden. I don't want to 'over hype' the scenario, but I don't want to downcast either, there is the potential for severe flooding. Keep an eye on the official forecasts and warnings from La Reunion, JTWC and the South African Weather Service.

Update 3 March 2012 (18:00): Continuing with the trend of being weaker than forecast tropical storm Irina now looks unlikely to reach tropical cyclone strength in the short term, and as with some of the other cyclones this year, a large change in the track forecast was issued today. The storm is now expected to turn and do a loop off the north east coast of South Africa as a 50kt storm before then strengthening somewhat and heading towards the coast of extreme southern Mozambique near to where the original landfall forecast point was. There is currently no landfall forecast in the forecast period but the previously mentioned potential landfall area is based on extrapolation. The new track forecast would suggest rain would be more limited in the area to the far west and more present on the eastern parts of northern KZN. The prolonged period of tracking off the coast could pose a larger flood threat, and if it were to make a landfall later into this week as forecast it could pose a larger flooding threat than before assuming the outer bands already saturate the grounds while it loops off the coast. The SAWS has issued a new press release on the system today which can be viewed here. Below is the latest track as per La Reunion.

Follow the discussion on Irina in the forums: Tropical Storm Irina Forum Thread

Update 4 March 2012 (11:00): Tropical storm Irina has started to have an impact on weather in the eastern and northern parts of South Africa. There was a large area of cirrus and moderate convection associated with the bands of this storm which moved as far south as East London, with some deep convection moving over Durban, causing some heavy showers. Heavy rain has been reported from several north eastern parts. Latest satellite imagery seems to show this large band diminishing slightly and continue moving south. The deep convection around the center of the storm seems to have lightened slightly over the past few hours too. There were reports of several hundred houses being flooded already by Sunday morning, with the collapse of a house in Kwazulu Natal. The Umhlangeni River was reported to be near flooding level by eyewitnesses just an hour ago. There were reports of the Durban beaches already being closed too in a precautionary measure, which is a wise thing to do considering people often end up thinking surfing or swimming is wise during a cyclone. The current track remains very similar to the above track but no longer expected to reach cyclone strength before landfall which looks destined to make landfall on Thursday, in what still appears to be far southern Mozambique. For current satellite imagery you can view weatherphotos.co.za.

Update 5 March 2012 (08:00): NEW ARTICLE ON IRINA

Experiencing conditions related to Irina? Feel free to comment with details.