Storm Chasing - South Africa
2010 Hurricane Season in Full Swing
Friday, 27 August 2010 09:53

After what has been an extremely slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season things finally seem to be kicking into gear. The usual trend took place for the season though, with the first few storms of the season developing near the CONUS, primarily in the Gulf and Caribbean. This is due to the fact that conditions tend to be more favourable in these areas in the early months while the Eastern part of the Atlantic remains un-conductive for development. The season started off with Hurricane Alex, which was an unusual storm with an extremely low pressure, but winds which were a lot weaker than what would usually be found with those pressures- this was due to a lack of strong ridging and generally lower surround air pressure meaning the gradient of pressure was less and in turn so were the winds. Alex formed in the late days of June, and by the looks of it the Atlantic was in for a busy season as predicted... Or so people thought.

 

In the period between the A and B named storms there was a tropical depression which showed some promise in early development, but was not able to establish a good core for development and never reached tropical storm strength.

 

Next up was Tropical Storm Bonnie which formed in late July, it formed from a long tracking tropical wave which passed north of the Caribbean islands and later impacted the state of Florida. The storm remained weak throughout its life with a peak wind speed of 40mph. Bonnie too looked as though it was a sure strong tropical storm heading into very warm SSTs, but was never to be. At one stage the SHIPS intensity guidance forecasted a category 2 hurricane from Bonnie.

 

A week after Bonnie, eyes were now focused on another wave in the Central Atlantic which would later become Tropical Storm Colin. By now many were using Colin as benchmark for whether the season could redeem itself. Now already the beginning of August it was expected that Colin would encounter favourable conditions and be able to develop. The wave did in fact become Colin and began to look as though it had the chance to become a hurricane in future, but then Colin encountered some hostile conditions and shear combined with forward speed ended up with the LLC speeding ahead of the convection, which was displaced to the east.

 

By now many had given up hope in the season, claiming that nothing could survive and would somehow be killed off by shear or dry air.

 

Between the forming of Colin and Danielle there was also a minimal tropical depression which formed in the Gulf of Mexico, but is nothing to write home about, making landfall on the Gulf coast, bringing with it some showers and a breeze.

 

Long ahead of Danielle's arrival the models had picked up on her development and the GFS in particular was showing Danielle forming 384 hours out, and what turned out to be in relatively close distance to where she actually formed. Danielle formed from a vigorous African wave which was showing signs of development as soon as it hit the water, it was even labeled as a research invest before it had left Africa and would later become an official invest wave. Danielle took a few days before she finally established a good core and later became a tropical storm and hurricane, though for a period she looked sick with dry air managing to penetrate her core, as could be expected many were calling it her death claiming that no storm could survive the 2010 season. Though just a few hours later Danielle was able to enter an area of higher CAPE where dry air became less of a problem and she was able to establish a strong core, a large eye was present for a while before later constricting and with its smaller size, came stronger winds. In the early morning hours of August 27th a surprise special advisory was given by the NHC which stated that Danielle had become the first major hurricane of the season, and only a couple of hours later she was upgraded further to Category 4. At time of writing this she is still currently a Category 4 hurricane and is forecast to pass safely east of Bermuda.

 

Eyes are also currently on Tropical Storm Earl which is nearing hurricane intensity and is forecast to also become a major hurricane, and pass north of the Caribbean Islands. But the path of Earl is not set in stone and those in the Caribbean should still be paying attention to Earl as he tracks WNW currently. It is expected that Earl will become a strong hurricane and manage to follow Danielle into a weakness in the ridge and become a fish storm, though as mentioned above there are still options for Earl regarding his paths.

 

Currently my eyes are also on the Invest 97L which is ANOTHER Cape Verdes system which is developing rapidly and could become a tropical depression by the end of the day. This system would be (possibly) too far East at the moment to catch the right timing to slip into the same weakness that Earl and Danielle and going through. Models are also showing strong ridging off the east coast in the 240 hour period, with the EURO currently forecasting an extremely strong major hurricane heading towards the east coast of the CONUS from the current Invest 97L. Now being 10 days out a lot can change and likely will, but should the upper air pattern than the EURO is depicting remain as forecast and should conditions remain so favourable for 97L, the East Coast could be looking at a serious hurricane thread come 2 weeks time.

 

So while the season started off appearing as though anything and everything would be killed off by unfavourable conditions which seemed to appear from nowhere, things have changed it would seem. The switch has been turned on and we are now into the real active period of the 2010 hurricane season.

 

 
2010 Winter Season
Wednesday, 11 August 2010 19:32

Snow fell over the weekend on the higher mountain ranges of the Western Cape with the passing of a fairly fast cold front. Conditions dropped to the lower to mid-teens for a couple of days before recovering quickly. Conditions for Cape Town over the next few days include a rising in temperatures until the latter parts of the week, temperatures will hover around 25'C.

Conditions throughout the rest of the country remain fairly typical for winter. There has been a lack of strong cold fronts this season for much of the country, the cold fronts that have passed through have been of fairly high pressure, and even the snow incidents, the cold fronts were not accompanied with the typical sharp troughs which create the pressure differences that cause gale force winds, though with this said there is still a month or so left of winter.

In the tropical Atlantic it has also been a fairly slow start to the season, majority of tropical storms have fallen apart really quickly and have not shown any signs of danger to the United States. This has been due to dry air and shear, SST temperatures continue to remain high though. Cape Verdes season begins late August usually, where long tracking tropical storms some times tend to pose a risk to approach the Caribbean and later the Gulf of Mexico and the American coast. But thus far there has not really been anything to report on that's exciting.

 
Rain and Snow for Cape Town - 9-11th July 2010
Friday, 09 July 2010 10:28

Altocumulus Sunset

First, here's a photograph I took last night on July 8th as altocumulus clouds approached Cape Town ahead of the upcoming cold front. The image is 6 stitched 18mm photographs resulting in a rather large width.

The main weather interest at the moment for South Africa should be the upcoming cold front, like most of the storms this year it is supported by a fairly weak high pressure system and isn't deep enough to create winds that we usually experience in winter. But as before, we may well see freezing levels drop to around 1200m around the Cape Town region. This means that snow is definitely likely on much of the Western Cape mountains. A few sprinkles are even possible on table mountain, though not anticipated. A few weeks ago Cape Town was victim to a period of cold weather which saw significant snowfalls take place. The Hottentots Holland mountains were about 1/3 covered in snow, which is quick thick for the area.

Heavy rainfalls are also forecast to occur through Saturday in many places in the Cape Town area with 24 hour totals reaching in excess of 60mm in Grabouw. It should be great for those wanting to visit the snow, Sunday may be the day to head out to Ceres, though the main rainfall itself will probably occur on late Saturday through early Sunday.

For those worrying about the weather for the World Cup Final, you need not worry. The cold front will pass through to the east of the country and exit on Monday. It's not expected to bring any rain to the Gauteng region, and the forecast for Johannesburg, while cold is a dry one.

 
Tropical Storm Alex Forms
Saturday, 26 June 2010 16:12

The first named storm of the Atlantic 2010 season has formed. The system, previously allocated as Invest 93L has spent quite some time lingering around the Caribbean not really doing much at all, causing some frustration to those hurricane tracking weather enthusiasts. Though on Saturday 26 June the system was finally named after Recon went in and found tropical storm force winds associated with it. It was only just declared a tropical depression on Friday and only spent a few hours as one before being upgraded.

The track of tropical storm Alex has trended further west with almost each model run over the past few days, originally with the EURO model forecasting a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall near the Florida panhandle. Though now the system is forecast to first make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, before reaching the gulf as a weakened tropical depression, and then regaining tropical storm and even category 1 hurricane status just before making landfall in Mexico. Though Texas should still keep an eye on this system as guidence is often changed as upper steering currents are quite unpredictable, as is all weather.

This will mark the beginning of what could potentially be a very active hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures have been extremely high throughout spring and continue to be far above normal so far this summer too. Shear is somewhat relaxed, though still occasionally present thanks to a few troughs. The next area of interest is the area marked 94L which has some potential for development, though a 'fish' storm would be most likely.

 
Cape Town Gets Some Snow
Monday, 14 June 2010 17:48

Cape Town Snow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cape Town got a taste of winter in it's purest form over the past few days, with a strong cold front making landfall on Sunday the 13th June. By Monday 14th, snow had already plastered much of the higher mountain peaks.

Freezing levels around Cape Town were as low as 1200m, with a bit of snow apparently reported on table mountain too. As can be seen from the above picture the Hottentots Holland mountain ranges also collected their fair share of snow.

More snow was likely during the night of Monday through Tuesday morning where-after the temperatures are expected to rise a bit. Maximum temperatures for Monday in Cape Town were 12`C which is typically around the lowest day time maximum Cape Town receives. Though it is important to note that it's only the beginning of June and winter has only been with us a mere few weeks, so things are likely to get worse (better?) weather wise as the more intense cold fronts make landfall.

The current cold front, despite bringing extremely cold temperatures, did not have a very strong pressure gradient and thus winds were kept down to about 50km/h as opposed to the storms which often bring 65km/h to 75km/h winds to the Cape. With a public holiday coming up on Wednesday I'm sure many may be heading to Ceres in the hopes of spending a day in the snow, should it last that long.

 
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